A Tale of Two Polls paints a curious and somewhat conflicting picture of California politics. California voters are unhappy with Governor Gavin Newsom — but appear ready to elect another Democrat to replace him.
A new Emerson College poll gives Democrat Xavier Becerra a commanding 27-point lead over Republican Steve Hilton — 60 to 33 percent. And despite California’s affordability crisis, 44 percent blame President Trump for the state’s economic problems, compared with just 38 percent who blame Newsom.
But a separate Politico–UC Berkeley Citrin Center poll tells a different story about the governor’s popularity. That survey finds 55 percent of California voters disapprove of Newsom’s job performance, with just 42 percent approving. Even more striking, 78 percent of independents disapprove. Telling are the results of Newsom’s overall approval on handling of homelessness–72% overall say NOT WELL, and housing–69% say NOT WELL.
The Emerson poll, however, finds Newsom slightly above water — 46 percent approving, 43 percent disapproving.
It is worth noting that the recent revelations fake polling of a company called Wedgewood, casts a long shadow of doubt over the polling industry–these are two well-known polling firms: Politico–Berkeley surveyed voters September 8–14, while Emerson surveyed October 17–19. Also, the Politico–Berkeley survey measured registered voters, while Emerson surveyed likely voters.
Different surveys, different results — but one political reality: Any dissatisfaction with Newsom has yet to translate into Republican support in the governor’s race.
AI helped prepare this story
