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August 14, 2026

Will We Land A Human On Mars-Or Will The ‘High-Speed Train’ Happen First?

By Drew Hayes

Call this a travel update: OnLAca reported that the so-called ‘High Speed Train’ will run out of money by the end of next year, if deadlines continue to be missed and lied-about (read it here). But while the odds seem long that this epic fail will ever reach its destination–at least the betting markets have some optimistic news--Kalshi is taking wagers on whether the High-speed Rail with be built before we land a human on Mars! The High Speed Rail completions is in the better bet right now.
kalshi train mars wagers

What has become of the privately (with some help) high-speed train to Las Vegas? Delays and a new launch timeline–now in 2029, so the leave the Olympics and head to Vegas isn’t going to happen. The Los Angeles-to-Las Vegas high-speed rail project—officially named Brightline West—is actively under construction with an anticipated completion and service start date of late 2029, though it has faced rising cost estimates and timeline delays. 
 
Current Status and Timeline
  • Construction Progress: Following a formal groundbreaking in April 2024, early civil engineering, utility relocation, site grading, and parking garage structures for the Las Vegas station have moved forward. 
  • Revised Schedule: The project missed its initial, highly ambitious goal to be operational in time for the 2028 Summer Olympic Games in Los Angeles; the target launch has slid to late 2029. 
  • Project Costs: Escalating costs for labor and raw construction materials have inflated the overall estimated price tag of the 218-mile project from an initial $12 billion up to $21.5 billion.
    Funding and Financial Hurdles

    • Public & Private Backing: The venture secured a $3 billion federal grant from the U.S. Department of Transportation under the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, alongside billions in private activity bonds. Brightline West is still pursuing an additional massive federal loan.
    • Parent Company Pressures: The broader corporate entity has faced scrutiny and financial pressure tied to debt and heavy losses from its sister passenger rail operations in Florida, though regional project managers maintain that work on the Western corridor continues forward. 
    Route and Operational Design
    • The Route: The 218-mile electric train system will run primarily down the median of Interstate 15 (I-15), connecting Las Vegas directly to Rancho Cucamonga, California, where passengers can transfer to the Metrolink commuter rail system to reach wider Greater Los Angeles.
    • Travel Times: High-speed trainsets (built by Siemens Mobility) are designed to reach speeds up to 200 mph (320 km/h), cutting the cross-desert trip down to roughly 2 hours and 10 minutes

About the Author

Drew Hayes
Chief Content Officer